Uncertainty perception in bidding for Product-Service Systems under competition

This research investigates what impact of uncertainty perception arising from the existence of competition has on the pricing decision for Product-Service Systems (PSS) under uncertainty. PSS provision is an increasingly important area for many businesses and competition increases cognitive pressures on providers even further. We present an experimental study with industrial costing and bidding experts from the defence and aerospace sector. The study consisted of an experimental set-up via two questionnaires which differed in the existence of competition in the bidding scenario. The findings showed that bidding decision makers changed their evaluation of the cost estimate due to the introduction of competition but kept their evaluations of the profit margin and price bids constant. Furthermore, the participants listed the relevant sources of uncertainty that influenced their decision-making process. This research contributes to the literature in two ways. First, our findings showed that predictions from current theory regarding decision-making of cost estimation and pricing are not confirmed when competitively bidding for PSS. Second, we show uncertainty sources that influenced the decision makers and identified p the importance of internal processes of the PSS provider and environmental uncertainty.     

On the efficiency of intra-industry information transfers: The dilution of the overreaction anomaly

We revisit the stock market anomaly documented by Thomas and Zhang (2008) and show that the apparent mispricing of information transfers has decayed over time, as the US markets experienced rapid improvements in the efficiency of the underlying price formation processes. Utilizing recent advancements in market microstructure research to estimate firm-specific proxies for market efficiency, we demonstrate that the existence of the overreaction anomaly (where stock prices of late announcers in response to the earnings reported by early announcers in the same industry are negatively related to subsequent price responses of late announcers to their own earnings reports) is specific to an earlier sample period and results from the inefficient incorporation of information into prices, largely attributable to an environment with high barriers to arbitrage. Our results indicate that the pricing efficiency of intra-industry information transfers has increased in the recent years of increased liquidity and markedly higher trading activity.     

Shadow costs of incomplete information and short sales in the valuation of the firm and its assets

This paper presents a simple framework for the valuation of compound options within shadow costs of incomplete information and short sales. The shadow cost includes two components. The first component is the product of pure information cost due to imperfect knowledge and heterogeneous expectations. The second component represents the additional cost caused by the short-selling constraint. Information costs are linked to Merton's (1987. Journal of Finance 42, 510) model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete information, CAPMI. This model is extended by Wu et al. (1996. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 7, 136) who propose an incomplete-information capital market equilibrium with heterogeneous expectations and short sale restrictions, GCAPM. This model is used in our paper to provide for the first time in the literature analytic solutions for derivatives in the presence of both shadow costs of incomplete information and short sales.When deriving the compound call option formula, we consider a call option on a stock, which is itself an option on the assets of the firm. Our methodology incorporates shadow costs of incomplete information and short sales on the firm's assets as well as the effects of leverage in the capital structure. The formula can be useful in the valuation of several corporate liabilities in the presence of information uncertainty and short sales constraints about the firm and its cash flows. Our analysis can be used for the valuation of several real options.     

不同经济发展水平下创新要素对产业创新绩效的影响及政策启示

基于不同经济发展水平研究视角，选取新一代信息技术产业为研究对象，采用改进的Griliches-Jaffe知识生产函数模型，运用面板数据回归分析方法，利用《中国高技术产业统计年鉴》（2007-2017年）中电子及通信设备制造业统计数据进行实证研究，探究创新要素投入与创新绩效的关系。结果发现：对于新一代信息技术产业，在不同经济发展水平地区投入相同创新要素对创新绩效的影响存在一定差异，尤其体现在技术投入要素作用效果上。这就意味着，对经济发展水平不同地区使用相同的创新要素推动产业创新发展是低效的；不同发展水平地区有针对性地分配创新要素，对于实现创新要素最大效率、推动战略性新兴产业布局与发展尤其关键。最后，提出相应政策启示及建议。     

Does online observational learning matter? Empirical evidence from panel data

The information presented on a product sales page plays an important role in consumers' purchase decisions. This study examines the persuasive effect, whether a customer's choice is heavily driven by information inferred from others' behavior, and how these impacts are moderated by market age and product type. Results show that online customer choice was significantly affected by historical cumulative sales and times saved. Positive cumulative sales and shop service quality have a significant positive impact on product sales. The times saved have no direct impact on product sales. For different types of products, the times saved of experiential products has a significant impact on product sales, while the shop service quality information of search products has a greater impact on product sales. The influence of online observation learning on product sales will be significantly moderated by a combination of product type and market age. These findings not only offer important theoretical contributions to e-commerce research but also provide practical implications for online sellers and managers of social commerce platforms.     

How do “gatekeepers” affect credit risk?

This study investigates the relationship between auditor tenure and credit default swap (CDS) spreads of U.S. firms based on quantile regression. After allowing for common determinants of CDS spreads, auditor tenure exerts both statistically and economically significant additional impacts on the CDS market. Furthermore, there are differential effects of common CDS spread determinants and auditor tenure. While common determinants of CDS spreads (e.g., leverage, volatility, risk free rate, credit ratings, and earnings) have monotonically increasing impacts when CDS spreads (and their changes) are increasingly higher, auditor tenure primarily has the impact when CDS spreads are of low or median levels for less risky firms.     

Information transmission between large shareholders and stock volatility

Does information transmission between large shareholders exacerbate stock volatility or reduce stock volatility? In this study, based on the common shareholding data in the Chinese stock market from 2007 to 2017, we establish the shareholder’s coshareholding network, and use the weighted network clustering coefficient to measure the information transmission speed. Moreover, we investigate the impact of information transmission speed on stock volatility. The empirical results show that a nonlinear U-shaped relationship exists between information transmission speed and stock volatility. The findings are robust to the inclusion of other determinants of stock volatility identified in the literature. Finally, we verify the existence of private information interaction in the coshareholding network.     

信息不对称、过度自信与股价变动

信息传导的非同步和投资者情绪变化是股票市场的两个典型特征,前者会引发投资者之间出现信息不对称问题,后者主要体现为投资者过度自信,两者共同作用影响股票价格变动。本文将信息不对称和投资者过度自信情绪置于同一个分析框架,建立两阶段动态序贯定价理论模型研究现实市场上信息传导过程中股价变动的内在机制。结果表明:(1)面临新信息的进入,投资者对股票收益预期的调整与均衡价格之间具有正相关关系;(2)面临有利消息时,过度自信投资者比例越大,股票的均衡价格越高,投资收益将越低;面临不利消息时则相反;(3)随着过度自信投资者比例以及过度自信程度升高,市场风险溢价将下降;(4)投资者群体在信息传导过程中出现分化,对股价变动形成异质信念,未获取信息和获取信息但未出现过度自信的投资者认为股价被高估,获取信息且出现过度自信的投资者认为价格被低估,促使更多的交易,引发市场成交量和股价变动;(5)过度自信投资者比例与过度自信程度提高均会对市场效率产生正向影响,而对市场深度具有负向效应。最后,基于理论结果对非对称性和持续性等典型的市场波动性特征进行解释。     

Information,market power,and price volatility

We consider demand function competition with a finite number of agents and private information. We show that any degree of market power can arise in the unique equilibrium under an information structure that is arbitrarily close to complete information. Regardless of the number of agents and the correlation of payoff shocks, market power may be arbitrarily close to zero (the competitive outcome) or arbitrarily large (so there is no trade). By contrast, price volatility is always lower than the variance of the aggregate shock across all information structures. Alternative trading mechanisms lead to very distinct bounds as a comparison with Cournot competition establishes.     

“互联网+创业”服务平台用户使用意愿影响机理研究——基于D & M模型和计划行为理论视角

针对互联网创业服务特点，基于计划行为理论信息系统成功模型构建新的理论模型，使用结构方程模型进行数据分析，以解释互联网创业服务平台用户持续使用意愿。通过模型分析发现，兼容性和线上线下互动通过知觉行为控制正向显著影响用户满意度和用户使用意愿，信息品质直接影响用户对互联网创业服务平台的使用意愿，而用户满意度在平台信息品质、系统品质、服务品质与使用意愿之间具有中介效应。基于此，提出完善互联网创业服务平台和提升用户使用意愿的对策建议。